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Introduction:
Scott scouts out the team's options in the corner outfield positions

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I could divide right and left fielders, but they are so interchangeable that it doesn’t make much sense. If we assume that Jeff Bagwell will not be able to play everyday, the Astros could sign a left fielder or sign a right fielder and move Jason Lane to left field. Either way, we are concerned primarily concerned with the performance of left fielder of the month club last season. At any one time you could have had Chris Burke, Todd Self, Luke Scott, Mike Lamb, or Lance Berkman. <pre> Hits EBH HR AVG OBP SLG OPS Pirates 185 84 30 .309 .408 .559 .967 Marlins 212 75 28 .330 .392 .543 .935 Reds 162 80 36 .274 .394 .534 .928 Phillies 167 61 32 .274 .376 .480 .856 Mets 165 64 35 .272 .358 .497 .855 Cardinals 174 65 31 .281 .344 .489 .833 Giants 178 62 23 .294 .357 .460 .817 Brewers 165 74 32 .264 .324 .484 .808 Rockies 186 58 23 .290 .342 .465 .807 Dbacks 169 63 24 .265 .355 .441 .796 Padres 161 49 21 .262 .360 .411 .771 Cubs 161 55 17 .265 .319 .418 .738 Braves 157 50 16 .260 .337 .401 .737 Nats 153 59 14 .251 .321 .404 .725 Astros 149 54 14 .244 .310 .388 .698 Dodgers 124 42 10 .212 .279 .324 .603 </pre> I think I’m detecting a trend here. We have looked at three positions and the Astros are 15th in all three. If people point to the outfield as the key spot in the off-season they do have some cause. The Astros are further away from the median in left field than they were at shortstop and catcher. Like with the catchers, there are two categories of outfielders we can look at: the elite and the bargains. Unlike the shortstop position, there is no need to look at the current cast of characters on the roster. We know what we have going on there. The Elite On the free agent front, we have the likes of Brian Giles, Bernie Williams, and Johnny Damon. On the trade front we know that Manny Ramirez is available. Before we go over the multitude of issues we should take a look at what the four players have produced the last three seasons. Manny Ramirez has a fixed salary (20 million a season) and would demand quite a bit in return, but we’ll include him in the exercise anyway to demonstrate talent. <pre> Hits BB EBH HR AVG OBP SLG OPS Johnny Damon 552 197 162 42 .298 .364 .440 .804 Brian Giles 484 313 184 58 .294 .407 .489 .896 Manny Ramirez 522 259 237 125 .309 .404 .598 1.002 Bernie Williams 385 209 119 49 .258 .350 .406 .756 </pre> Johnny Damon and Bernie Williams are not really elite outfielders according to the numbers, but someone will be stupid enough to give them huge dollars. This leaves us with Brian Giles and Manny Ramirez. We know Ramirez is better, but how much better is he than Giles? Let’s compare their home and road numbers from last season to see how much effect ballparks have. <pre> Hits BB EBH HR AVG OBP SLG OPS Giles Home 71 49 23 6 .267 .381 .417 .798 Ramirez Home 78 41 35 22 .307 .403 .618 1.021 Giles Away 93 70 38 9 .333 .467 .545 1.012 Ramirez Away 84 39 41 23 .280 .363 .573 .936 </pre> Manny Ramirez can hit anywhere and that is why the Red Sox pay him twenty million a season. Yet, we see that Giles goes from Clark Kent to Superman on the road. Is this a fluke? Petco Park has had a park factor of 92 and 80 in the two seasons it has been open. Conversely, Minute Maid Park has had a park factor of 100 and 95 the last two seasons. In other words, his numbers should come closer to the road numbers than the home numbers almost anywhere else. Before we decide, let’s take a look at their peripheral offensive numbers and defensive numbers. <pre> SO BB Ratio GIDP SAC SF Giles 202 313 0.645 38 0 21 Ramirez 337 259 1.301 59 0 18 FRAR FRAA Giles 13 -15 Ramirez 1 -31 </pre> This is why the Red Sox are trying to trade Manny Ramirez. No one would say Giles was a better player than Ramirez, but when you add in the peripheral offensive numbers (particularly a very impressive SO/BB ratio) and the defense can we say that Ramirez is eight or ten million dollars better? Of course, we will get to the same question when we look The Bargains In addition to finding cheaper options here you will also notice that there are many more of these players. Included in this list are the likes of Jeromy Burnitz, Juan Encarnacion, Reggie Sanders, Preston Wilson, Rondell White, Jacque Jones, and Matt Lawton. <pre> Hits EBH HR AVG OBP SLG OPS Burnitz 420 181 92 .261 .327 .492 .819 Encarnacion 421 156 51 .265 .320 .434 .754 Sanders 325 151 74 .272 .333 .530 .863 Wilson 354 153 67 .268 .332 .487 .819 White 379 130 53 .289 .341 .476 .807 Jones 428 146 63 .268 .322 .443 .765 Lawton 384 123 48 .262 .357 .412 .769 </pre> All of these guys have warts. That is why they are in the bargain bin. In fact, with the exception of Matt Lawton (who will spend the first ten games suspended for steroids) all of these players had OBPs between .320 and .341. However, all but three of these guys had OPS marks above .800 over the last three seasons. If we assume that Brian Giles is a .900 OPS player we have to ask the question: how much is 100 extra OPS points really worth? When you travel in sabermetric circles you get the opportunity to meet a lot of very intelligent people. One of those is Sandy Hemenway. Hemenway noticed that clubs pay as much as five, six, or ten million more for a player with a 900 OPS over a player with an 800 OPS, yet the cost of going from 700 to 800 may be only a million or two. Many of us would love to have Brian Giles, but the Astros have budget concerns (as we have heard over and over). If Drayton McLane came forward and said we could have ten million dollars to spend on free agents (he would pick up the tab on Clemens and arbitration raises) would you rather have only Brian Giles or one of the above outfielders and Bengie Molina? You could even throw in a veteran reliever into that equation. The pure fan in me would rather see Brian Giles in an Astros uniform. Personally, I love watching hitters that have a full command of the strike zone. At least, I like watching them when they’re wearing my team’s uniform. Yet, I cannot deny my head in this case and it tells me that we are better spreading the wealth around to two or three players. Let’s see which one fits our clutch hitting concerns. We’ll eliminate Lawton because of his suspension. <pre> SO BB Ratio GIDP SAC SF Burnitz 345 150 2.300 24 1 9 Encarnacion 272 116 2.344 37 10 11 Sanders 303 99 3.061 23 1 7 Wilson 336 116 2.897 50 1 6 White 204 87 2.344 34 0 12 Jones 342 112 3.054 39 5 10 </pre> Now, you see the source of the warts. Honestly, there isn’t much of a difference here in the grand scheme of things. All of them strike out too much and walk not enough. If I were forced to pick one from this chart it would be Rondell White because he didn’t strike out as often as the others, but he also didn’t draw as many walks. Before I make up my mind, I’m going to look at the defensive numbers. <pre> FRAR FRAA Burnitz 35 -6 Encarnacion 20 -16 Sanders 26 2 Wilson 12 -26 White 10 -8 Jones 46 13 </pre> If I had to pick the top three candidates it would be Jacque Jones, then Reggie Sanders, and then Jeromy Burnitz. Who knows, maybe Burnitz would be willing to take a little less than five million to come back home and win a pennant. Jones could be on the outs in Minnesota and might fly under the radar. Reggie Sanders might get ushered out of Saint Louis if they go after bigger fish as well. He has played for nearly everyone, so maybe he’ll give Houston a try. What’s the point? In terms of value, there is very little difference between those three or even Rondell White below that. The one that takes the cheapest deal wins.

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