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Practicing For Real
added 03/29
The Astros and Indians engaged in a close battle Monday night in Kissimmee, a game that didn't become interesting until the eighth inning. Oh, Wade Miller pitched in good fashion, and the Indians fielded the ball insanely well, as they usually do against the Astros every spring, but by the eighth inning of the 1-1 tie, the contest began to take on the probable shape of many games to come, home and away, in 2004. The Astros played the final two innings as if they counted, and played them using elements of the ballclub that will determine in large measure just how good the current Astros will be over the next six months. Adam Everett, back from Saturday's injury to his face, singled via the bunt in the bottom of the eighth, swiped 2B, and raced home on Jose Vizcaino's opposite-field base hit to LF to break the tie. In the top of the ninth, Octavio Dotel faced the sternest warm-up test he's yet had this spring in preparing to be the Astros' full-time closer, but he was up to the challenge, striking out the dangerous Alex Escobar with runners at 3B and 2B to preserve Houston's 2-1 win.
It was just happenstance--that is, just the way the lineup happened to turn in the eighth--that brought Everett up to the plate to face Jose Jimenez, but there is--or will be--a weight that Everett will carry this season that he did not carry last season because of his different spot in the batting order. To put the matter plainly, Everett is now in his best spot--second--and the Astros should encourage him to do exactly what he did in this spot: bunt. Everett should be bunting like crazy, and stealing bases every chance he gets. He represents Houston's only appreciable speed in the everyday lineup, a fact that will remain true even if Eric Bruntlett or Willy Tavares gains a roster spot, and the Astros must use it, even if they occasionally overplay their hand. If Everett bunts as much as he ought to, and if he steals as many bases as he can, his percentage of success might not be as high as we'd like; as high as Bagwell's steal percentage, perhaps, but the idea in having him bunt and steal is not entirely to be successful all the time. It is to try to force the other team into a mistake, even when they know a steal attempt is coming.
Cleveland may not have anticipated Everett's bunt Monday night, a roller down 3B way, but surely they knew he'd try to swipe 2B. No matter. Half the steals of all the great base stealers--Henderson, Brock, Wills--came when the other club knew a steal was about to be attempted. The full range of Everett's game--his ability to draw walks, his ability to drop one down, his effectiveness as a thief--was almost never in evidence in 2003 because the man hitting behind Everett last year was either the pitcher or a pinch-hitter. This year, Everett is where he should be in the lineup, and while no one should expect him to be a catalyst on the order of the Hall of Famers I just mentioned, there is hope that the Astros will be just the tiniest bit quicker and more resourceful at manufacturing runs than they were a year ago.
Everett's steal didn't immediately bear fruit. Eric Bruntlett grounded out to 2B, and late-game entrant Mike Lamb walked, but that left the game situation in the hands of Jose Vizcaino, another sub on this night. My respect for Vizcaino has grown immensely since he became an Astro. Like every good pinch-hitter, he has had--and will have--his share of failures, but there is no one else, not Bagwell, not Berkman, not Kent, that I would rather see up there at the plate when Houston needs a simple base hit for a single run. Vizcaino's experience under pressure and his deft bat control are a quality and a talent I'll bet the Yankees wish they had back right now, but New York can't have him. Vizcaino belongs to the Astros, and he fits a need on this club so deep that no one wants to contemplate what another extended absence of him during the upcoming season would mean.
For Dotel in the ninth, protecting the slim lead, the situation was as real as a simulation can get. The first two outs came as quick as may be on fly balls, but Dotel then hit pinch-hitter Chris Clapinsky with a pitch and gave up a single to LF by Matt Lawton, the Indians' sixth hit of the game. A Dotel pitch then proved too hot for Raul Chavez to handle, but whether that was Dotel's fault or Chavez's, our cookie-eating broadcasters in the radio booth never said. The most important issue, however, was that Dotel had suddenly pitched himself into a jam. One could almost call it a Billy Wagner-type jam (that's true, if you think about the numerous base hits to LF that Wags would give up on his off nights), but my point is not to draw a strict comparison. It is merely to say that Dotel's jams will be of a character entirely his own, and that most of his fatal errors, when they come, will involve the long ball. We should prepare ourselves now for those times when Dotel will fail, knowing--or at least believing--all the while that Dotel will grow into a role that is truly his for the first time in his career as a reliever. I've said several times this winter that I think Dotel will do just fine as Houston's closer. He's not Wagner, but his stuff is, on most nights, as hard to hit or harder than Wagner's was. Like Wagner, Dotel is probably not going to be able to be effective for much more than an inning in the closer's role. The task is a tougher one physically and mentally than the job of set-up man, where a pitcher can just let his hardest-to-hit stuff go for one or two innings, knowing he's got the club's best behind him.
What Dotel has going for him is his breaking stuff. The pitch that Wagner took five years to develop--a slider--Dotel already has full command of. It is that pitch that Dotel used to dust Alex Escobar to end the game on a full count Monday, and it is that pitch, more than Dotel's fastball, that makes me think Dotel can be permanently the fine closer he showed he could be a few seasons ago in Wagner's absence. He's going to get crunched on the fastball more than once this season, but if Dotel can spot the slider with the same efficiency that he's had with it the last two years, then he will remain very tough to hit, even under the greater pressure that ninth-inning situations always bring. His save percentage won't be as high as Wagner's because his fastball isn't the overpowering thing of nature that Houston's former closer has, but Dotel possesses guts and he has the stuff to go with 'em.
The early innings saw Cleveland strike first on a Casey Blake homer to LF in the second and the Astros tie the game in the third on a double to LF by Craig Biggio, a hard single off pitcher Jason Stanford's leg by Everett, and an RBI groundout by Jeff Bagwell. From there, it became a contest of the bullpens, with Brandon Backe, Mike Gallo, and Ricky Stone working to keep the game tied until the eighth. Stone, in particular, deserves praise for wiggling his way out of the tightest of spots after Escobar whacked a one-out triple in the eighth against Gallo. "A strikeout, an intentional walk, and a fly to LF" is a barebones summary of what happened, but the matter was more critical than that. Stone handled himself so coolly in the situation that the inning was over almost before anyone knew he'd gotten out of it.
It's still spring, as today's AAA assignments will suggest. Jeriome Robertson, Kirk Saarloos, Jack Hiatt, and Ryan Thompson have all been sent to New Orleans, although Thompson hit tonight late in the game, but the Indians-Astros affair had a more intense feel to it than games we've previously experienced. The Houston roster is close to its final shape now (only the Thompson cut caused a stir among Astro-watchers today, but even that one was not unexpected), and the final push to get in regular-season shape is on. To do so is critical. I've said this several times in Astroday Extra recently, but I'll say it to you, too: Houston has a terrific opportunity to jump to an early lead in the Central over the Cubs, now that it appears Mark Prior could be sidelined for a month. The club must take advantage of that opportuinty. While it does bother me that Prior will be out--the man has tremendous talent--injuries are part of the game, and there's not a soul in Chicago or St. Louis that would have one moment of sympathy if Pettitte or Oswalt went down with a bad arm or leg. Maybe they'd show some sympathy after the season, but not now. There are games to be won, and perhaps a pennant to seize. Houston needs steadiness--on offense, on defense, and in the dugout--as the season unfolds, but the Astros also need one other thing they haven't had since Jimy Williams took over in 2002--a hot April. Oh, for one of those this year. With the way the staff has pitched--particularly the starters--all spring, there's a chance we could see it, but such starts don't come by wishing for them. They're made to happen by practicing in March as if the outcome of a game in September depended on what you've supposedly feigned, by practicing for real.
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