With pitchers and catchers scheduled to report to camp on Saturday, Feb. 21, the 2004 Major League Baseball season has, for all practical purposes, begun. True, exhibition games will not begin for most clubs until March 5, but once pitchers and catchers in Florida and Arizona start unlimbering their arms, most of us consider the opening of camp a done deal.

What a year it should be! The last fabulous full season in baseball, 1998, caught many fans by surprise. Mark McGwire was expected to hit an extrordinary number of home runs, but nobody expected Sammy Sosa to challenge him so strongly for the home run title, no one really expected the Yanks to win 114 games, and Houston's great 102-win season took many by surprise, too. This year is different. There have been very few seasons I can recall in which so many teams are expected to perform well. The off-season moves have, for the most part, been major ones, and three of those moves--the Astros' signings of Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens and the Yankees' trade for Alex Rodriguez--may turn out to be of all-time significance in baseball history for their teams.

Yet, good as these moves are--and you may add Vladimir Gurrerro's move to the Angels if you like--none of them makes that team a lock to go anywhere in October. Yeah, the Yankees should make it to the post-season, but they might not. The same could be said of the Astros and the Cubs and the Angels. Such is the quality of talent acquired by Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, New York, and Anaheim that the divisional races in the AL East, the NL Central, and the AL West this year will be wondrous to behold.

The Cubs added their final piece on Feb. 19 by doing the expected and signing Greg Maddux to a two-year, $15 million deal. It's a high-quality signing for Chicago, bearing a lot of resemblance to the relatively-inexpensive contracts that the Astros got Pettitte and Clemens to agree to. Maddux could get a third year out of the agreement, but only if he gives the Cubs 400 innings over the next two. The third year would boost the contract's value up to $24 million, but the big question is not whether Maddux can pitch enough innings to earn it; the question is whether Chicago can make it to the World Series this season or next. If the Cubs can, then the third year of the deal may not matter very much. Chicago can either easily pony up the $9 million or send a victorious Greg Maddux, a "native son", so to speak, off into the sunset, ala Roger Clemens, having accomplished all that a Hall of Fame pitcher could do to secure his place in history.

There's been a great deal of talk this winter about the potential impact of Pettitte and Clemens on Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller. The same kind of talk has already started about Greg Maddux's possible influence on Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. In my view, however, the direction of influence on both clubs has been mis-read. I have thought since Clemens was signed that the man who might benefit the most from the experience and work ethic of Houston's two new pitchers is Tim Redding. Oswalt and Miller will learn what they can, for sure--they'll ask questions, they'll observe--but Houston's two biggest pitching guns over the past three seasons are already self-motivated, inquisitive practicioners of the art of pitching. Redding, however, needs to develop his game more in many ways. Two years ago, it was not clear to all who watched him that Redding was putting in all the work on the sidelines that he needed to, and management was not happy with him. Although Redding made strides in 2003 in almost every area, continued development of his game in conditioning, pitch-by-pitch approach to hitters, and composure on the mound is crucial this season if the Astros are to keep pace with the Cubs. Matchups series by series will be highly important, but both Chicago and Houston are so deep now in high-quality pitchers that it will be imperative for both clubs to get all five men in the rotation working well over as many long stretches as possible. Neither club will be able (or willing) to hang in very long with a fifth starter who struggles. If Pettitte and Clemens can impart even a fraction of what they know to Redding, by direct teaching or by example, then signing them will have been worth it over the long term for the organization.

By the same token, although Kerry Wood could benefit from Greg Maddux's example, he and Mark Prior are already seasoned veterans. If Maddux takes the erratic Matt Clement aside from time to time during the year or does the same for the occasionally off-kilter Carlos Zambrano, then have mercy, Chicago's pitching could be every bit as good as advertised. Maddux could help stabilize the Cubs at Wrigley Field a little more. The home / road splits of Chicago's rotation showed them to be better away from home in 2004, going 38-22 with a 3.22 ERA. Maddux was 9-7 /3.41 at Turner Field.

Chicago's newest rotation star is not the master he once was, but his decision to sign with the Cubs is a logical one. He gives Chicago's rotation a slight edge, I believe, over Houston's but that's only because I like Carlos Zambrano more out if the fifth slot than I do Tim Redding. Both clubs have arms that can be called on later, if need be. Houston has Jeriome Robertson, Carlos Hernandez, Kirk Saarloos, and Taylor Buchholz. Chicago has Juan Cruz and Angel Guzman to step into the rotation, if necessary. I like Houston's everyday lineup more than I do Chicago's, even with the change of Derrek Lee over at 1B for the Cubs. The division race will be close all the way but, if you asked me right now, I'd say Chicago would win the Central by two or three games and the Astros would be the Wild Card.

My thinking could change as Spring Training unfolds. If Corey Patterson can't come back to the form he showed before his injury last year, that will leave a hole in the Cubs' offense they might not be able to fill. Injuries to or inconsistentcy from Wood, Clement, or Zambrano could allow Houston to creep even closer, but if both clubs maintain their health and do what they do best, Chicago figures to make a playoff run again.

So will Houston. If the Astros don't win the division (they could), they're my choice for the Wild Card. I like Houston's lineup and its pitching top to bottom better than I do Atlanta's and better than I do Philadelphia, the team I think will win the NL East. The Phillies might turn out to have a deeper bullpen than the Astros but, for once, I think Houston is better as a whole than Atlanta. The Braves have not done enough to compensate for the off-season losses of Gary Sheffield and Maddux.

What's amazing about this off-season is that so many teams appear to have improved. It's almost easier to list the teams that haven't gotten any better--the Reds, the Cardinals, the Mets, the Twins, the White Sox, the Rangers. Even awful teams from a year ago, the Tigers, the Brewers, and the Pirates, have made some trades and signed some players who will help them be more competitive. Milwaukee, though it lacks pitching, has a much improved starting eight. Pittsburgh, blessed with tough starting pitching but no offense, figures to get some of the latter this year. Neither team will threaten the Cubs or Astros, but they might threaten the Cardinals before the summer is out. The Rangers, although they haven't gotten any better yet, may not stay down for too much longer. Trading Alex Rodriguez, painful as it was, was absolutely necessary for the financial success of the franchise. Texas got a solid player in return in Alfonso Soriano, and I'll go on record right now in saying that Texas's offense won't miss A-Rod in 2004. Solving their pitching problems will still take some time, but it won't take as long now as it would if Rodriguez were still soaking up all the free cash in Arlington. There isn't much in the way of pitching left to pick from as the various camps open, but the Rangers just might be able to make an impact move--one that helps them and influences a pennant race somewhere--at the trade deadline.

The best of the best--the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Cubs, the Astros, the Phillies--probably won't need more pitching than they already have. What they need is what all good teams hope for as the calendar nears March: a month of good weather to get all the conditioning work in, and a bit of luck to get through the Spring Training games unscathed in preparation for the games that truly count.

I'll be away from my desk next Friday, so there will be no Astroday next week. The column will return, however, and begin its daily run, when the ST games begin on March 5.