A couple of weeks ago during the announcement of Roger Clemens' signing, Drayton McLane jokingly asked the others around the microphone with him what the Astros were going to do for an encore. The events that happened Thursday, January 22 and Friday the 23rd don't quite count as an encore, but ithey do count as surprises. Jimy Williams took nearly all the suspense out of Spring Training by telling the media that Tim Redding will be the Astros' fifth starting pitcher when Spring Training begins in March. That decision leaves Jeriome Robertson to battle Brandon Duckworth for a spot in the bullpen, barring a trade of Robertson before camp opens. Robertson and Duckworth will be joined by set-up man and former Astro Dave Veres if Houston can come to financial terms with him. LHP Carlos Hernandez, essentially still rehabilitating from left shoulder surgery, will be handled with care in March and not pushed beyond his limits.

The decision to go with Redding over Robertson is a welcome one, and not unexpected in most quarters. Redding was 10-14 in 2003, but he had a 3.68 ERA, well below the National League average of 4.41. His ERA+, a sabrmetric figure that adjusts a pitcher's ERA to both the league average and to the home park in which he pitches, was 120, a fine figure. His WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) was 1.39, slightly higher than the National League average of 1.31. Redding's Pitching Runs figure, a Total Baseball measure of the number of runs a pitcher saves his team compared to what a league average pitcher would do, was 14.2 in 2003, meaning that Redding was 14.2 runs better than an average National League pitcher. Redding's below-500 won-loss record may be attributed mostly to a lack of run support, around 3.1 runs per game, the lowest figure for any National League starter.

Robertson's figures alongside those of Redding don't look nearly as impressive. He was 15-9, but his ERA was 5.10, and it was 6.83 in the crucial month of August, both figures way above the league average. His ERA+ was 87, considerably to the negative of a league average of 100. His WHIP figure was 1.52, higher than Redding's, and his Pitching Runs figure for 2003 was approximately -12.6, meaning that he gave up 12.6 more runs than a league-average pitcher would have done. Yet Robertson was 15-9. Clearly, run support had a lot to do with his success, but Robertson was not in the top 40 National League pitchers who received the most run support. Wade Miller, who was only 14-13 last season, was in the top 40--tenth, in fact, supported by 5.48 runs per game. Run support or the lack thereof does not by itself account for the won-loss figure of either Robertson or Redding last year, but there are enough sabrmetric figures already available to make a decision between the two men, and Jimy Williams has made it.

A lot of people--members of the organization, writers, fans--think Redding turned a psychological corner last season, and the choice to put him in the rotation now for 2004 is an act of faith regarding his progress as a pitcher. His stuff is worlds better than Robertson's is, and on that basis alone, Redding deserves to have extended to him more patience than Robertson does. There are areas, however, that Redding still needs to work on. His WHIP, good as it is, still does not meet the league average, and he needs to get deeper into games. As I pointed out back on December 5, Redding went at least six innings only 15 times and 7+ only five times. If the bullpen turns out high-quality work from many men, then how long Redding pitches when he starts may not be that significant an issue; but as matters stand now, getting Redding farther along in each start could very well be an issue both for him and for the team this season.

The performance of Robertson in a bullpen competition with Duckworth will help determine just how deep the Astros will be in middle relief. Jimy Williams says he doesn't consider either man a lock to make the club, although it's hard for me to see how the Astros could accept Duckworth as part of the package for Billy Wagner and then cut him five months later. Stranger things have happened, so I won't dismiss the possibility of Duckworth having a short stay in the Astros' camp, but as I read the situation, the pressure is definitely on Robertson, and that pressure will only increase if Veres signs with Houston, regardless of what Veres has left in his tank at age 38. The one advantage that Robertson has is his left-handedness, something that Houston could use in a 'pen that no longer has Billy Wagner around. The one disadvantage that Robertson may have is an inability as a reliever to come in and throw strikes right away. His curve will often flatten out and when it does, as we saw against the Cubs and Brewers last season, Robertson gets hammered. His competition, Duckworth, has, like Redding, better stuff than Robertson does, but command of it out of the 'pen may be an issue for him, too, although he may get away with more mistakes than Robertson. But I saw enough of Duckworth in 2001 to like him as a project. It may be that Gerry Hunsicker regards Taylor Buchholz and Ezekiel Astacio as the real prizes out of the Wagner trade, but I, for one, will not discount potential contributions from the one man in the trade who already has big league experience. It's hard as all get out to make it in Philadelphia. Not only do players face the pressure of high expectations nearly every year, but the media are about as crabby and unforgiving as it is possible to be. The Astros will have raised expectations of their own this season but, even so, there's a fair chance that Duckworth can, like Redding, re-gain some confidence in his gifts as a pitcher in the less-pressurized Astro clubhouse. However the competition between Robertson and Duckworth turns out, Houston will gain a valuable swing man, someone who could step out of the bullpen and into the rotation if need be, should there be an injury to one of the Astros' starting five.

Speaking only for myself, and thinking only from how the situation looks on paper, I'd prefer that swing man be Duckworth because of his stuff and because Robertson finished 2003 so badly. But I'm not going to pre-judge the matter any more than this. Let 'em fight it out, and may the best reliever win. By making the choice now of Redding for the rotation, Williams avoids the three-ring circus of having too many pitchers and too few innings in which to fit them come March. Such free-for-all competitions make me nervous as a fan, as I've said on several occasions. I prefer to watch teams that have settled most of their questions, and I think most managers prefer to manage such clubs. The knowledge that the starting rotation is set will help Redding and the other starting pitchers work their way more easily into a Spring Training routine of throwing on the side and in games, fielding, and hitting, and improve their concentration upon those tasks.

The knowledge that they will be, at best, members of the bullpen will also help Robertson and Duckworth, painful as that knowledge may be. Their roles will be different from what they might have envisioned for themselves this season, but no less valuable for that, given Roger Clemens' age, Andy Pettitte's elbow, and Roy Oswalt's groin. All may turn out well with these three, but it is also possible that Robertson or Duckworth will wind up in the rotation at some point during the season, subbing for one of them.

The choice to go with Redding at # 5 might give some momentum to a trade of Robertson in Spring Training or before. Although nothing appears to be happening on the trade front right now, once Los Angeles gets its ownership deal squared away, the Dodgers figure to be on the hunt for a right fielder. They've expressed some interest in Richard Hidalgo, but nothing to Hunsicker's liking. Putting Robertson into that package with Hidalgo may draw a response from LA that Hunsicker does like. We'll have to see whether the two clubs are interested in making a major swap. If they were, that would constitute a major surprise but, for the moment, the Astros are content with giving us minor surprises.

Another of those surprises was Thursday's press notice that OF Colin Porter was claimed off waivers by the Cardinals. If the move stands, the loss of Porter will be the second such loss for the Astros' system in the last three months. You'll recall that the Padres claimed Henri Stanley off waivers a while back. Granted, that Houston just signed Orlando Palmiero for its bench and he provides experience that Porter does not, but Porter's departure still takes away an element Houston could use in the OF--speed--and it puts considerable pressure on Rule V draftee Willy Tavaras to really show the club something in Spring Training.

Robertson's shift to the bullpen, Porter's departure, and the possible re-acquisition of Veres--a pitcher I hated to see leave town after 1997 in the trade with the Expos that brought over Sean Berry--taken together, make me wonder whether some other major move truly is cooking on a stove somewhere in the Astros' front office. Perhaps Thursday's announcements, and Friday's tentative announcement about Veres from Astros.com, mean nothing more than what they appear to mean, but my antennae are up because of these developments, and we'll see if anything develops because of them before March arrives.

If the week had a final surprise, it was the announcement that Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, and Octavio Dotel all avoided arbitration and came to terms with the club at the last minute. I did not expect that to happen, but I'm glad it did. All three get hefty raises over what they earned in 2003, but just as important, each of the raises (Dotel to $2.8 million, Miller to $3.4 million, and Oswalt to $3.25 million) is in line with what management figured it would have have to pay, and each is in lne with the individual player's years of service. The payroll is thus no higher than what the Astros expected it would be at this point. Barring a significant trade to cut some of that payroll before or during Spring Training--a trade that may or may not happen--the Astros appear to be set, and ready to get down to the serious fun of preparing for what promises to be a very hard campaign against a gallery of teams--the Cubs, the Cards, the Phillies, the Braves, the Giants, the Padres--that have either improved themselves over the winter or will remain merely as tough as they always have been for Houston to beat.