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Afterglow
added 01/16
In 1947, fans of the Boston Braves coined a slogan that has earned a place in baseball history: "Spahn and Sain, and pray for rain," they used to say, when contemplating the excellence of Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain and the weakness of the rest of the pitching rotation behind them. Now, in 2004, Astro fan Ron Jones has coined a slogan that goes the Braves' fans one better for confidence, and may earn a place in Houston baseball history: "Clemens and Pettitte--don't you forget it."
Such is the afterglow of one of the most remarkable weeks in the history of the franchise. The signings of Clemens and Pettitte have given everyone who watches the ballclub, inside the organization and out, renewed hope that this could truly be the year that the Astros, frequently a talented team but always seemingly a player or two short, finally make it to the World Series and win it.
Are we setting ourselves up for a huge disappointment? Quite possibly, but that is in the natures of baseball executives, players, and fans. We look back in astonishment at the dominant Yankee teams from 1921 to 1964, winners of 29 American League pennants over that time and 20 World Series and think that some things in sports are just inevitable; but all of those pennants and championships were won under baseball's reserve clause, which allowed clubs to keep in perpetuity, if they desired, the players they signed. In the modern era of baseball, marked by Curt Flood's breaking of the reserve clause in 1970 and the advent of free agency, fate, though still kind to the Yankees, doesn't always smile upon them. With ten pennants and six World Series titles from 1977 to 2003, even New York, blessed with wealth from the country's biggest media market it can use to sign those free agents, has had to endure its share of bitter disappointments.
Even as we acknowledge that nearly everything will have to go right if the Astros are to win the National League pennant in 2004, it's hard not to like Houston's chances. The pitching, simply not deep enough in the past two seasons, now has a depth that would have been impossible to envision last September. There will be questions to answer about the staff in ST, but Oswalt, Pettitte, Clemens, Miller, Dotel, and Lidge are locks, with Redding, Duckworth, Stone, and Miceli only a little less so. A little farther outside but still with a chance to make the staff stand Jeriome Robertson, Carlos Hernandez, and Mike Gallo. Teams have been requesting scouting reports upon and inquring about both Robertson and Redding since Pettitte signed, but it must be emphasized that although Hunsicker may eventually trade either man, he is not going to give either man away. The deal will have to be right. One might go, but both might stay. If Hernandez throws well in bullpen sessions before the exhibition games begin, he figures to get a fair number of innings in trying to nail down the fifth spot; but since his placement on the 60-day DL last year saved him an option to the minors, the Astros aren't likely to worry a whole lot if Hernandez has to work his way back more slowly at New Orleans or Round Rock. Gallo stands somewhat in the position Wayne Franklin did a few seasons ago: a left-hander the Astros would like to add to the bullpen if they can. Gallo in his one season with Houston in 2003 impressed me far more than Franklin ever did, but with Duckworth a possible bullpenner as well, I'm less certain about Gallo's odds of making the club. Kirk Saarloos's chances as starter number five or a reliever would improve if Hernandez can't pitch or if the Astros make a trade, but otherwise, he's on his own, and it'll be a tough fight to make this staff on opening day. That leaves dark horses. Taylor Buchholz and non-roster invitees Rodrigo Rosario and Nate Bland seem to fall into this category. Any of them could make the bullpen with a brilliant spring but, along with Saarloos, each one will probably serve the Astros best as a potential call-up during the season if each remains in the Houston organization, and Buchholz certainly will remain.
Hunsicker did his best this week to quiet all the talk of trading Richard Hidalgo but he didn't quash it completely, saying in Thursday's online edition of the Houston Chronicle, "We're certainly not aggressively looking to trade him at this point." The key words there are "aggressively" and "at this point." As I interpret his statement, Hunsicker hasn't yet found a deal for Hidalgo he likes, isn't spending a lot of time looking for one, but remains open to a trade if a good one could be arranged. It's possible that Hunsicker's tone lends even greater force to his words than I can tell, but his denial of working on a trade of Hidalgo is not categorical. More telling, however, was Jose DeJesus Ortiz's revelation that the Astros and the Dodgers haven't even spoken since the Winter Meetings, a fact contrary to the breathless story in the Los Angeles Times Thursday about the Dodgers' pursuit of Houston's RF. Matters could change, of course, once Spring Training arrives, games start being played, and clubs on the hunt have a clearer idea that they really do need players of the quality of Hidalgo, but at the moment, the odds seem better that a pitcher will get traded before (or instead of) Hidalgo.
The Houston bench became a lot less problematic today with the announcement that OF Orlando Palmiero has, as expected, signed a one-year deal with the club. I like this move a lot. Palmiero is a patient hitter, works deep counts, and has playoff experience with the Angels on his resume, although he played for the Cardinals last season. The thought of having Palmiero available from the left side and Jason Lane available from the right late in games excites me. And for the first time in a couple of seasons, I'm not really worried about Lane making the club. He'll be there, as a reserve or a starter. I wish we could give Colin Porter's speed to Craig Biggio, but the best we can hope for is that Porter can adapt to late-inning usage as a pinch-runner and pinch-hitter. He'll be challenged by Rule V acquisition Willy Taveras and, given the relative inexperience of both players, it could well be a challenge for either man to make the club. On the infield, Jose Vizcaino will be there, too. His switch-hitting ability, along with Palmiero and Lane from the left and right side, will give Jimy Williams an abundance of pinch-hitting choices in crucial spots. Perhaps the most interesting ST battle will be that between John Valentin and Eric Bruntlett for the last infield spot. If Valentin can still hit--a big if--it will be hard for the Astros not to go with him because of his experience at all the interior positions. If Valentin's game truly has slipped, however, Bruntlett showed enough last season in the field and at the plate that the Astros could go with him as a reserve without too much worry.
Raul Chavez and John Buck will battle for the reserve catching spot, a battle Chavez figures to win unless Buck just stuns everybody with his bat and glove, which is possible. Since Brad Ausmus has signed a two-year deal, the timetable for Buck's arrival in the big leagues appears to have been altered a little bit, but whether it's this season or next, Buck will get here, and he'll be good when he does.
I'm also confident of one other thing: whether it's Porter or Taveras in the OF, Valentin or Bruntlett in the infield, or Chavez or Buck at C, those of you looking for an Astros bench can stop looking. The bench is here and it, too, will be a good one. For the first time in many seasons, there won't be any easy outs sittin' over there. Even Porter and Bruntlett, the least experienced of the Astros who played with the club last season, carry sting in their bats as well as fine speed. They can get on base, keep a rally going, and win games in the little ways that bench players must.
So, in the end, you'll pardon my enthusiasm for this band of Astros as presently constituted. Maybe there's a bit of an afterglow affecting my eyes after the brightness of the week's beginning, but the reality of Spring Training will help me adjust my sight. There's work still to do before late February gets here: Miller, Dotel, and Oswalt have filed for arbitration, and it's probable that the arbitrator will have to settle all three cases. But barring an unforseen trade over the next month, the 40-man roster is set, and the battles for the few spots available on the 25-man roster will commence in about six weeks. Despite the pressures of raised expectations for this team (a topic discussed quite a bit in various places since Monday), I anticipate enjoying the Astros in 2004 with a pleasure I've felt with only a relative few teams in Houston's past. The teams of 1979, 1980, 1986, 1998 and 1999 were fun all season long, and the clubs of 1969 and 1972 through 1974 had extended periods of remarkable play; but of all Houston's teams, only two--the 1970 Astros, picked to win the NL West by Sports Illustrated, and the 1980 Astros, losers of the Western Division by only a game and a half the year before but strengthened by the addition of Nolan Ryan to the rotation--had the expectation of excellence suddenly thrust upon them the way this team has.
I believe that, one way or another, this club will handle the pressure. Clemens, Pettitte, Palmiero, and Vizcaino have all played in the sport's biggest Series, and Bagwell and Biggio have for years played in all the games a team has to play to reach that highest level. The newest Astros can teach the old warriors a few things about working under pressure, and none of the veteran Astros will panic or lose perspective if the season starts slowly. Neither will they let a stretch of poor play go on for too long. It is not yet time to predict how good Houston will be, but given a season of good health, the Astros will be formidable. They will have to be, because the Cubs, Phillies, Giants, and Braves are either right there with 'em or not far behind.
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