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Marking Time
added 01/02
The holidays passed uneventfully for the Astros and their fans, and that's a pretty good thing. There were a couple of developments over the last two weeks worth commenting on but, for the most part, the team we will see in the coming season is set.
LHP Nate Bland was gently nudged into the free agent market in order to clear roster space for Roger Clemens, if the retired ex-Yankee decides to pitch for the Astros this season. There's no word yet on whether Clemens will pitch in 2004. He doesn't have to make a formal decision on that until early February, so the club has accepted the fact that it simply will have to wait until he does decide something. My own sense of the Clemens situation--based on nothing but my own feelings--is that Clemens probably has already decided to come out of retirement, but has not decided on the terms of any deal with Houston. His agent made clear in late December that if Clemens does decide to pitch again, it will be only for the Astros. That's an encouraging sign, I believe, for those of us who earnestly want to see the Rocket in a Houston uniform for one final season. Yet, there could be a snag in getting Clemens to come aboard, and those of you who recall the bitter and ultimately broken-off negotiations between the Astros and Clemens in the winter of 1999 will know what I'm talking about--a grossly excessive, last-minute contract demand. I hasten to add, however, that the present circumstances are greatly different from what they were a few years ago. Clemens is clearly descending from the summit of his career, and he does not now have the negotiating leverage he had four baseball seasons ago, nor do I believe he would use what leverage he has to drive a hard bargain with Houston. As was the case with Andy Pettitte, if Clemens really does want to pitch where he lives, he can do so. The only questions are for how much and for how long. Logic would suggest a one-year deal, but I can see--and would not be surprised by--a two-year deal. Part of Clemens' salary would almost certainly be deferred regardless of the length of the contract.
How Houston will come to the point of signing Clemens is not clear, but negotiations later this month with arbitration-eligible Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, and Octavio Dotel might have a lot to do with what Clemens is finally offered. The trade of Geoff Blum to Tampa Bay probably saved the Astros close to $3 million, and Houston's trio of stellar pitchers are expected to make at least that much, one way or another, in 2004. It may not be until the contracts are decided for these three that we know how much the Astros are willing to give Clemens. The possibility still exists, too--slim as it may be--that Richard Hidalgo will be traded before Spring Training, but at the moment, it appears that the Astros will hang on to Hidalgo, and hang on to Miller, too, expand the payroll somewhat beyond its 2003 limits, and make a run at the playoffs with the team the organization presently has. Houston did add OF Willy Tavares, a Glen Barker clone, from Cleveland in the Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings, and the club also invited OF Phil Hiatt and P Tony Fiore to ST camp, but unless the young Tavares actually brings more to the table than Barker did and sticks with club rather than being offered back to the Indians, or unless the perennial minor-leaguer Hiatt, whose ability to pound AAA pitching has never translated to the big leagues, suddenly relaxes at the plate and gives the Astros one good year, Houston will go into battle this coming season with the team we now see--that is, of course, unless Clemens decides to join the club and add to its quality and depth.
In the meantime, we'll mark the days, as we always do, until pitchers and catchers report. Carlos Hernandez is resting comfortably and reports no ill effects from his pitching in Venezuela. The hope is that he'll be in good shape to battle for the fifth spot in the Astros' starting rotation--thankfully, the only starting spot open on the entire team headed into the season. Pettitte and Clemens are working out together, too, and Pettitte is doubtless doing what a friend may do to sway his pal to join him, but one suspects that all that can be said in the way of persuasion has already been said, and it's up to Clemens and his family to decide whether he pitches again. Richard Hidalgo is probably checking the days off, too, wondering if he will still be an Astro when next season rolls around. He left for Venezuela at the end of September, accepting rather philosophically the trade buzz about himself this off-season, but after three months, he's still Houston's RF, and a good one, at that. It's possible that the signing of Hiatt has more to do with trying to add a fresh face to Houston's bench than it does with the Hidalgo situation, but it's also worth noting that Hiatt can play RF as well as LF, and he could turn out to be Jason Lane's backup if Hidalgo is dealt somewhere.
Here's hoping that marking a calendar is the only stressful thing any of these men have to do before the end of February. The opening month of any new year is, in baseball terms, a relatively quiet time of preparation, both mentally and physically, for the long grind ahead. For the first time in several seasons, the Astros enter a new campaign with few questions about which players will be doing the playing for them during the year. Even the questions they do have--about Clemens, about Hernandez, about Hidalgo--can be dealt with successfully if the answers to those questions are negative: if Clemens remains retired, if Hernandez cannot stay healthy and pitch well, if Hidalgo is traded for budgetary reasons. For the first time since 1996, when the Astros finished six games back of the Cardinals, Houston enters the season with no major questions about any part of its club--neither its starting pitching, its bullpen, its defense, its hitting or its bench. While many of us will wonder about exactly who will fill supporting roles for that bench and for that bullpen, our questions as we wait out the longest month of the year--March--will be mostly the questions fans should be asking--questions about performance, rather than personnel, about how well the club we will see will actually do on the field. Will it come together both in hitting and pitching and give us a season like the one we saw in 1998? I think it might. Houston's pitching appears more sound than that which the team had back then and, like that team, everyone knows that this team will hit. The question will be, can the Astros' offense, potentially explosive, stay healthy and largely intact for the lion's share of 162 games? If it can, then this is going to be a season which will open with even greater promise than 2003 did, and it might be a season filled with excitement we haven't seen since Randy Johnson stood on a Houston mound.
That season began much as this one has, with the acquisition of a marquee player, Moises Alou, playing the part Andy Pettitte played in December, but, like this off-season, that off-season passed with an air of quiet anticipation. It took a month for the Astros of 1998 to find their stride, but once they found it, no one stopped them until October came, and they faced a man named Brown. Like that club, this Astros team may take a month or so to jell, but if and when it does, it will be formidable. As was the case six seasons ago, the Cubs will be there again to challenge the Astros, this time with better pitching and a more versatile offense than the 90-win team Chicago had back then. It should be a terrific race between these two clubs, but you might not know it in the quiet days of January. At the moment we're all just waiting, letting the days pass, preparing as best we can, and hoping the season to come will be as bright as it has been in our dreams.
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