The wise men and women of life have always told us that we should react to even happy experiences with a sound, sober, calm, reasonable demeanor. Having been an admirer of The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius for many years, I can do no other.

My first response to Andy Pettitte signing with the Astros? Pom-poms in hand:

"OK! READY! NOW WE'VE--GOT--THE--PLAYERS--ON--OUR TEAM, THEY'RE GR-E-AT GREAT!".

Sound, sober, reasonable, calm.

Not since the Astros swept up Randy Johnson for the stretch run of 1998 have I felt as excited by the possibilities of what could be in Houston's baseball future. On Thursday, I listened to the press conference about the signing three hours after it happened, then spent the rest of the afternoon answering e-mails about it. I knew that the Yankees had made a last-minute offer to Pettitte, and I also knew that Pettitte's agents had made a counteroffer that the Yankees had rejected. When word of New York's refusal came down, I believed, finally, that Pettitte would take Houston's offer. And when the substance of that offer--three years, $39 million--and of Pettitte's agents' counteroffer--four years, $52 million--became publicly known, I understood why Pettitte did what he did. The thinking on the East Coast was that had New York initially come out with a four-year, $52 million offer, Pettitte might have re-signed with them. I don't know about that. There's a lot that's unsettled in the atmosphere around New York these days that not even Joe Torre and Mel Stottlemyre can calm, and Pettitte was getting gentle, earnest nudges from home, too. In the end, however, New York's $39 million came far closer to matching the Astros' offer than I ever thought it would. Only Pettitte knows what all the factors were that led him to sign with the Astros, but I believe one of them was that George Steinbrenner took the re-signing of Pettitte too much for granted. I think he thought that, along with the money, the opportunity to continue along the path toward becoming the winningest left-hander in Yankees' history would be enough to keep Pettitte in New York.

It wasn't.

The first question most of us have is how the Astros intend to pay for Pettitte. The year-by-year breakdown of the contract--$5.5 million in 2004, $8.5 million in 2005, and $17.5 million in 2006--suggests Houston can handle the first two seasons all right; the amounts are small enough so that a variety of choices should be available--perhaps a trade to clear payroll room, or a decision not to pick up Jeff Kent's option. But that third year is huge, and it's anybody's guess right now what the Astros intend to do about it. There will be increased revenues in '04 and '05 through ticket sales, and perhaps playoff tickets, as well. McLane's dream of selling out every home game, ala the Red Sox and the Indians, is closer to reality than it's ever been. There's also the possibility of increased TV revenue in 2005 from the proposed Astros/Rockets network, but that remains to be seen. Another unknown factor in all this is whether, or when, McLane plans to sell the club. It's possible that the final year of Pettitte's contract could be somebody else's problem when we get there, but McLane is not acting at the moment like a man who intends to sell tomorrow. He's acting more like a man who intends to go out with a bang.

The second question most of us have is what impact Pettitte will have on the Astros' staff. I pointed out last week what I thought his first impact might be: that of a pitcher who gets his team deep into games on a regular basis. Beyond that, however, I disagree ever so slightly with what's been written since Thursday about where Pettitte will be slotted in the rotation. Both the Houston Chronicle and the wire services, understandably enough, have written about Pettitte as Houston's new # 1 guy, the ace of the staff, the starter on Opening Day. It could turn out that way, of course, but it doesn't have to, and the Astros might be better off if it doesn't. Pettitte wasn't a # 1 guy in New York. He was sandwiched in the middle of the Yankees' rotation, and that's a way he might thrive in Houston, too. A rotation of Oswalt, Pettitte, Miller, Redding, and Robertson or Carlos Hernandez would give the Astros righty-lefty balance and a tremendous contrast of styles with which to befuddle National League hitters on a daily basis. How Pettitte pitches in the presence of the Crawford Boxes is a concern, but he's mostly a ground-ball pitcher and a flyball pitcher to RCF. He'll have to adjust to the smaller dimensions of his new home, but he's savvy enough to take advantage of its more spacious parts, too. The odds are Pettitte won't get the enormous run support (7 RPG) he got last season, even if the Astros' lineup bounces back and explodes next year like we thought it would last season, but the club will score for him, and his ERA might drop some, too, now that he won't be facing a DH and a serious threat in the # 9 spot, as he has for years in the American League.

It seems to me that, on balance, Pettitte will be worth about 15 to 17 wins next season. If that sounds like too low an expectation, think of what 15-17 wins could mean spread out over the whole rotation--75-85 wins, something this starting staff is now easily capable of. If everything breaks right, Houston could have three 20-game winners, and, depending on how many wins the bullpen gets, it really would be 1998 all over again as far as the Astros' record is concerned. Whether Pettitte will be a vocal leader in the clubhouse, I do not know. I do know, having looked in his eyes when he's pitching, that he will bring his own level of concentration and intensity to the mound--a welcome addition to any ballclub. It is also possible that Pettitte could help two pitchers--Robertson and Redding--with their approach to the game at a critical point in their careers, and that also would be a very good development.

It's an open question whether the Astros have now the payroll flexibility that Gerry Hunsicker said the club had after Billy Wagner was traded, but Houston does have, suddenly, startling flexibility with the pitching staff. Again, things have to break right--Oswalt's groin has to stay healthy, Carlos Hernandez has to come all the way back--but look at the depth the Astros have. Duckworth and Robertson are available for the bullpen if they don't start, giving Williams both a lefty and a righty for long relief. Taylor Buchholz, obtained in the Wagner trade, could also be a factor down there at some point. The Pettitte signing may mean that the Astros won't be able to make a mid-season deal for help, but as far as pitching is concerned, they might not have to.

On the other hand, with Pettitte, Duckworth, Hernandez, and Buchholz all figuring to be new and possibly major factors next season, the Astros could swing a deal for July help, if they're willing to give up some pitching. It must also be pointed out that Houston might not be done acquring players this weekend. I spent part of my Friday afternoon prowling around the Hilton Riverside listening to all sorts of conversations, and I will do so again Saturday and Sunday. Four Astros' names keep popping up: Hidalgo, Blum, Robertson, and Redding. It's less clear than it was a week ago that Hidalgo will be traded. Perhaps McLane truly will allow the payroll to expand enough to keep both Doggie and Pettitte; after all, McLane did say scant days before Pettitte signed that he was willing to make a "special effort" to land New York's left-hander; perhaps we are now seeing that effort. But, Hidalgo's name is still out there, with LA and Atlanta still possibilities. The ebb and flow of the past week has seen the Gary Sheffield-to-New York story cool off, then heat up again, so I don't think anybody's quite ready to close the book on a trade of Hidalgo just yet. The meetings run through Monday, and there's a great space of days beyond that before Spring Training, too. Blum could still be pursued by the Reds, but the latest rumor has him being discussed as part of a package with Robertson or Redding to the Pirates for Kris Benson or Kip Wells. The Astros would probably jump at a Robertson/Blum-Wells deal, but the Pirates, naturally enough, would prefer to unload Benson's $6.25 million contract on somebody.

An "X" factor in all this, and someone who would probably force a trade of Robertson or Redding somewhere (not necessarily to the Pirates) is Roger Clemens, who is as I write this playing it coy about joining his friend Pettitte for one last home-state fling. McLane has said he will talk to Clemens, and I think McLane is interested in signing him, if the price is right (an incentive-laden, deferred money deal) and the length of contract is ok (one year, two at the very most). If the details could be worked out, I think a Clemens signing would be an electrfying event for baseball around here and for the history of Houston sports. I would prefer, however, that if it is to be done at all, it be done quickly in the off-season. Clemens as a May or mid-season pickup doesn't appeal to me much. Although he is in great shape, there's no substitute for Spring Training in reaching pitching condition, and I doubt that if Houston or some other team were to wait until July to sign him, he would do that team much good. The sooner Clemens either signs with the Astros or decides to stay retired, the better for him and them.