"We Are Not Down To Negotiations"
added 11/28

Drayton McLane spent part of the Tuesday before Thanksgiving trying to quash the rumors that the Astros had made a three-year offer to Andy Pettitte, a deal worth $30 million. According to McLane, no such offer has been made. The two sides are still in preliminary talks, and it appears that McLane's purpose before heading off to Poland for a business trip is to scuttle any idea that the press or Pettitte's agents may have that he, as the owner of the Astros, is willing to set the market for the free agent Pettitte.

McLane told the Houston Chronicle what all of us already know, that the Yankees, with their vastly deeper pockets, hold most of the chips in this poker game, and that they, not the Astros, are the likeliest team to sign Pettitte. That said, Pettitte hasn't struck a deal with anyone yet, and if he truly does want to pitch near home, he can do so. Whatever offer McLane and company finally do make--if they ever make one--is not going to exceed three years. Maybe there'll be a option for a fourth year, maybe a clause for a little bonus money, but the thinking around the Astros' camp now is that a goodly portion of any Pettitte contract would have to be in deferred money, as was the case with Jeff Kent's deal.

It seems to me that the "preliminary talks" the Astros have engaged in with the Hendricks' brothers were probably meant to give Gerry Hunsicker some idea of how hard he'd have to shop Richard Hidalgo and Geoff Blum at the Winter Meetings in a couple of weeks, for, in addition to dealing with Pettitte himself, there's still the difficult task of finding a taker for Hidalgo. There was an ESPN.com news story about ten days ago which quoted an anonymous MLB front office source to the effect that if the Astros wished to trade Hidalgo, the club would have to absorb $8-9 million of Hidalgo's $12 million for 2004. That's a very high figure. Too high, if you ask me; I don't think Houston would have to handle that much of it--maybe half. But, for purposes of discussion, that figure does give us some idea of how hard it will be to find a taker for Hidalgo. That task has to be accomplished if the Astros hope to clear enough budget space to land Pettitte or anyone else.

It will be critical for the Astros to match up with an appropriate trading partner for Hidalgo. The money he's owed the next two seasons--$12 million and then $15--is the issue, not his talent. If it were not for the ecalating money in Hidalgo's contract, a lot of teams would have attempted to snap up Houston's RF a long time ago. He's certainly a suitable "poor man's alternative" to Vladimir Guerrero. Guerrero has greater speed and power than Hidalgo, but every time I see Guerrero clank one in the OF on a replay, I shake my head in wonder over all the money that teams are willing to throw in the direction of an outfielder who isn't as good defensively as Hidalgo is. Yet, there's no question that money is, too, the biggest obstacle to trading Hidalgo. We've run through the logical trading partners for Astros--the Yankees, the Mets, the Braves, the Dodgers, the Mariners--and I can't think of any other teams to whom Hunsicker might offer him. On paper, better deals for the Astros might be struck with any number of teams, but unless I am very wrong, only the high-payroll teams could handle Hidalgo's contract. What will be most important is not the players the Astros get in return, but how much space Hunsicker can clear on the ledger for next season and beyond and who he can entice to become an Astro in 2004. Although nothing appears to be happening on any front at the moment, it's still much too early to write the Astros off as a "playa" in the Winter Meetings. On the contrary, I expect them to be active from December 12-15, even if they don't come up with a deal as noteworthy as the Kent signing a year ago. Wait and see. Everybody's phones will be ringing around December 7th right up through the 15th, so much of the visible activity hasn't happened yet.

There was one trade this week, though, of mild interest to Astro fans. The Marlins, unwilling to give Derrek Lee $7 million, sent him to the Cubs in exchange for Hee-Seop Choi. Over the short term, advantage Cubs on this one, but over the long term (2005 and beyond), the Marlins may reap some benefits, too. The newspapers in Chicago are not as tough on the Cubs as they should be, but they do notice if a player doesn't live up to expectations. Choi, who suffered a concussion last season that affected his play, may prosper in the lower-key atmosphere of Miami. If and when he does, this is a trade that could help both teams.

Houston's moves, whatever they may be, are yet to come. I am neither squirming in my chair with excitement or drowsing at the keyboard each day as I count the hours 'til the fun begins. Rather, I am curious to discover what the Astros are able to do to improve themselves, and more patient than I usually am in waiting to see what will happen. The number of players available who could help Houston is substantial this season, and although Drayton McLane has stated plainly that "we are not down to negotiations" with the player whom many fans think ought to be the most sought-after commodity for the Astro market, nothing has been decided yet about Pettitte, and the Astros are in the meantime certainly not precluded from addressing the most serious needs of the ballclub in other ways.



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