Rain washed away a number of Arizona Fall League games this week, which was bad news for players like Phillip Barzilla, Mike Gallo, and Eric Bruntlett, who need the work on the mound, in the field, and at the plate, but which was good news for MLB's General Managers, in that it allowed them to stay in their hotels in Phoenix and talk to each other even more constructively than they might otherwise have done. That there is no compelling news emerging from this week so far should not be surprising. The GMs typically use these meetings to lay the groundwork for the more frenetic, full-scale Winter Meetings a month from now (Dec. 12-15) in New Orleans, attended not only by General Managers but also by owners, agents, and, on occasion, players.

This is not to say, however, that we haven't learned anything this week. As clubs talk, all of them are gathering information. Yankee GM Brian Cashman likens the process to gathering honey and taking it back to the hive. Deals have been discussed, and plans formulated. What's fascinating, though, is that even deals which seemingly might have been rejected this week may still be alive a month from now. Situations and stances change. A patient club, having made an offer, might get the deal it wants simply by biding its time.

All General Managers work this way, but you'll forgive me if I point to Gerry Hunsicker as an especially striking example of one who does so. For one instance, think of Hunsicker's patience five years ago near August 31st, when Houston was barely a blip on the radar scope until the very last moment in the bargaining for Randy Johnson. Although few in the media knew (and some of those few who knew, doubted) that the Astros were a serious bidder for Johnson's services, Hunsicker waited, having made a fair offer, and eventually landed the man who brought a late-summer excitement to Houston baseball that fans in these parts hadn't seen in over a decade. For another, think of last off-season, when the opportunity to sign Jeff Kent away from the San Francisco Giants came to Hunsicker and the Astros seemingly unbidden. The truth was, however, that Hunsicker and Kent's agent had been talking quietly all along during the winter, and got the deal done on terms both sides could be happy with. Although Kent wasn't quite the impact player in 2003 Houston had hoped he'd be, and though I suggested rather unsympathetically last week that not picking up Kent's option in 2005 might be a wise decision for the Astros to make this off-season, neither my interpretation of his season nor my hard-headed business sense should be taken to mean that I don't like Kent. On the contrary, given a full season of good health, Kent is a prime candidate to put up even better numbers in 2004 than he did this year. Drayton McLane's investment of a year ago may yet return a large dividend even if the club doesn't pick up Kent's option.

Thus, the fact that we haven't heard anything or seen anything concrete happen for the Astros beyond the re-signing of P Dan Micelli for one year at $600,000 (itself a significant development for next year's bullpen) doesn't mean we won't. Things are happening around the hotel lobby that could eventually affect the Astros. For instance, the Yankees and the Diamondbacks have been talking intently this week about working a deal to send Curt Shilling to New York. George Steinbrenner views Shilling as a replacement for the retired Roger Clemens, but, of course, Shilling could also be viewed as a replacement for Andy Pettitte if the latter leaves for Houston. According to the New York papers, the proposed trade has hit a snag because the Yankees don't want to give up both Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano for Shilling in addition to paying Shilling the $12 million he's owed next year. The Yankees have thus turned their attention for the moment to other possibilities: New York might give up Soriano to the Expos for P Javier Vazquez, a proposal which might make it easier for the Astros to lure away Pettitte, if they really want him. Yet, there's enough smoke being blown about to make seeing anything clearly right now a hard business. For example, Mel Stottlemyre signed on again yesterday as the Yankees' pitching coach which, so the New York papers say, gives the Yankees an edge in trying to re-sign Pettitte, because of Pettitte's closeness to Stottlemyre. New York's real edge, however, is, as it has always been, its money. If the talk out of Rochester, New York early in the week was accurate, the Yankees' current offer to Pettitte is for $12-13 million a year for four years. The rumored Houston offer is $6 million a year for three years. If the latter rumor is actually factual, it means that Drayton McLane still hasn't budged off his three-year limit for contracts, although there might be an option for a fourth year in there somewhere, if we're lucky. For whatever reason (and I will not speculate about this), it's been reported that the Hendricks brothers have asked that the negotiations for Pettitte be kept private, and Hunsicker has, as far as I can tell, kept that bargain, which is a good thing. Privacy enables both parties to offer up various figures, try out certain contract parameters (even absurd ones) without being dogged every step of the way by inquiring minds like ours. That's ok with me. I want to know something substantive as much as the next fellow, but if the privacy cloak allows Pettitte and company time to weigh and consider everything carefully, I'm all for it. If the Pettitte negotiations are all about money--and they may be: Pettitte's family was made as secure as money can make them years ago--then the Astros are likely to lose in the bidding. But if Pettitte really does want to pitch with his family close by, then the Astros will be in the hunt no matter how much money Steinbrenner puts on the table. For what it's worth, I believe that the more interest the Yankees show in acquring Javier Vazquez and Odalis Perez, the wider the door is for the Astros.

The Yankees might also impact, however, what kind of deal Houston can get for Richard Hidalgo. Newsday reported Tuesday that New York was, as you might expect, pursuing Kansas City CF Carlos Beltran, proposing a swap of Soriano. The Yankees would then put Bernie Wiliams in LF and Hideki Matsui in RF--a trade that knocks out sending Hidalgo eastward. A Yankee trade for Hidalgo would also be wiped out if New York is successful in signing away Gary Sheffield or in trading for the White Sox' Magglio Ordonez. There's even been some talk that if the Yankees can't pry loose Beltran, they'll take Raul Ibanez instead, which would also solve their RF problem. Since Kansas City GM Allard Baird is known to covet Soriano, something between KC and NY is quite possible over the next month. The Astros, if they want to trade Hidalgo, might have to turn to Atlanta if Sheffield leaves, or LA, or even to Seattle, although I think the Mariners will, in the end, find a way to keep Mike Cameron patrolling CF and send Freddy Garcia some place other than back to Houston. Keep in mind, too, that Hidalgo is not likely to be traded for anyone straight up. Just as Houston might want prospects in return for a high-quality player, so too Houston's partner might want a prospect along with Hidalgo, but Hunsicker must guard Astro prospects more carefully now than he had to, say, five years ago.

As for the Astros' other main trade piece, Geoff Blum, he might be easier to deal than Hidalgo and, prospect for prospect (if the Astros go for prospects in such a trade), he might actually bring near as much value in return as Houston's RF. The Reds are actively shopping for a 3B this winter and, given their rebuilding stance and tight budget, Blum would be a good fit for a trade there. So might the Athletics, if they lose SS Miguel Tejada and have to do some infield shifting next year. Although the Mariners' Garcia would be a logical asking price if the Astros worked a deal with Seattle for Hidalgo, the $12 million-$6.75 million swap in salary might not be appealing enough for McLane's budget. Consider, however, that a trade of Blum to the Athletics for LHP John Halama would send Blum's $2.5 million to the Bay for Halama's $750,000 and bring back to Houston a pitcher whose numbers were a little better than his icky (3-5/4.22) record in 2003 would indicate [108 IP, 117 H, 36 W, ERA below league average]. Yes, like you, I'd rather have Garcia, but a trade for Halama is an example of a more reasonable deal from Houston's perspective.

Although Hunsicker won't confirm it, the club is trying to re-sign Brad Ausmus for 2004. The Astros have looked at Ausmus's (.229/4/47) numbers from this season and decided that they aren't as important as Ausmus's Catcher's ERA of 3.66 or his .352 percentage of runners caught stealing. That's the club's privilege, but it's also fair to shout out a warning now that Ausmus is already 34, that catchers historically drop off both defensively and offensively after the age of 32, and that Ausmus's throwing fell off in the second half of 2003 even as his weak hitting picked up. Raul Chavez's catcher's ERA in 2003 was 4.40 but that was for only 77 innings of work. No one will argue that Chavez is as good defensively as Ausmus is but, given a full season of work, he's not that much worse. He's not as quick as Ausmus and won't block as many balls as Ausmus does, but he's a minor league veteran, he calls a fair game, and he does many of the little things for his pitchers (framing pitches, setting the defense accurately) for which Ausmus is renowned. His CERA would, in all likelihood, drop to around 4.05 if he played every day, and he will hit more than Ausmus will. Since San Diego has Ausmus no higher than third on its current wish list of catchers, the odds are fair that Ausmus will return to Houston for 2004, but if he wheedles more than a one-year deal out of the Astros, the front office will have made a mistake, given the payroll, given Chavez's younger age (30), and given the probable development, within a year or two, of catchers John Buck and Hector Gimenez in the minors.

The best that can be said of the week in Phoenix is that, by now, all the clubs have a much better idea of what they want to do and of what they can do. There will almost certainly be some free agent signings over the next thirty days, after the GMs report back to the home office, but the most critical off-season work will be done at the Hilton Riverside and elsewhere in New Orleans in a month's time, work which this week has helped the Astros, among other clubs, to prepare for.