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"Have Your Guy Call My Guy"
added 11/08
"I miss baseball," a friend lamented to me in an e-mail last week. Another wrote to me just this morning to say how gloomy he felt now that the season was over.
Both to them and to you I would say I share your melancholia, but this year, for me, the post-season sadness does not run as deep as it usually does. For one thing, the activity at both The Astros Daily and OrangeWhoopass web sites has been vigorous since the end of September, with a number of good columns and feisty threads on the message boards in both places providing food for us to chew on all winter, if necessary. For another, the Astros' trade of Billy Wagner this week happened sooner than I thought it would, and it might have signalled an early start for Houston to what could be a busier-than-we-expect set of Winter Meetings beginning on Monday. (I might mention, too, that three pitchers much on our minds this week--Duckworth, Carlos Hernandez, and Billy Wagner--figured prominently in one of Houston's best games three seasons ago. Read about it, if you like, from Aug. 23, 2001, "Gutting It Out In Philadelphia" in the Astroday archives.)
The Winter Meetings, commonly divided into the General Managers' meetings (this year in Phoenix, starting Monday) and the Winter Meetings (this year in New Orleans from December 12-15) are always fun, even if nothing happens for a team directly out of them. It is at these meetings that the GMs and their assistants begin talking to each other over their cell phones in that ritualistic, pressed-for-time way indicated by this column's title. It was at these meetings, for instance, that the Astros began exploring the possibility of signing Jeff Kent last season. It will be at these meetings that the Astros will be opening discussions with free-agent Andy Pettitte about the possibility of pitching for the Astros in 2004. And it will be at these meetings that Gerry Hunsicker will begin shopping Richard Hidalgo's name around in earnest as trade bait.
Like most observers (and probably like Gerry Hunsicker himself), I see these two concerns--acquring Pettitte and trading Hidalgo--as linked. Having promised to you a Hot Stove column in the future, I began work upon it by dealing with the vexing question of what topic to take up first: free agency or trades. The two means of getting players are related, and a club these days may not be able to land the former without first executing a specimen of the latter, as the Astros themselves could be in the process of demonstrating to us. When the Wagner trade was announced, I abandoned my Hot Stove column, wishing instead to write about the things that are actually happening with the ballclub, and figuring (we shall see if this is true) that things far more iinteresting than my hypothetical schemes are about to happen. Fortunately, thanks to the prodigious efforts recently of Jeff Schneck ("fro" on the AD's message board) and to posters in various forums over the last several days, we have had set down for us a detailed look at the Astros' budget, the players who fit within it, and discussion of most of the worthwhile free agents in whom the Astros might be interested. I could not improve upon such efforts myself, but in what follows, I would like to acknowledge this prior work as having stimulated my own thinking.
It is not clear to me that Houston will be able to trade Hidalgo, but I'm almost certain that Hunsicker will try. Not only would such a trade help enormously in squaring the payroll with Drayton McLane's targeted figure of $73 million, it is also nearly essential if the Astros are to acquire Andy Pettitte or some other top-notch free agent pitcher. Ought the club to trade Hidalgo? Strictly as an on-the-field move, probably not. Houston's RF had about as good a bounceback season in 2003 as anyone could have hoped for, and, while I acknowledge that statistics alone may have granted Jose Cruz Jr. his Gold Glove Thursday, Hidalgo's defense this past season was nothing short of spectacular, with 22 assists and the constant threat of his right arm to prevent countless runners from rounding 3B and even thinking about challenging him to a race for home plate. Yet these are the very characteristics which make a player tradeable. Twenty-two assists mean, among other things, that twenty-two times, either by hit, walk, or error, somebody ran on Hidalgo. It is possible that, by trading Hidalgo, the Astros would acquire directly or indirectly (through free agency) a pitcher who won't be party to giving up the hits or walks or errors that would lead to 22 assists in RF in 2004. The aim of trading Hidalgo and his $12 million salary in 2004 and his $15 million salary in 2005 is not just to handle payroll matters. It is to make the Astros better.
No one would be thinking of trading Hidalgo if Jason Lane weren't waiting in the wings, ready to step in and take Hidalgo's place. Although few fans are ready to predict that Lane would equal Hidalgo's offensive output in 2004 should Hidalgo be traded, and although Lane had a particularly hdeous pinch-hit at-bat this season that still makes me cringe when I remember it, he did hit four homers this year, more than his fellow OF Orlando Merced hit in a full season of pinch-hit and part-time play. Two of those homers came on the final day of the season, and the quality of the swings that Lane got in those at-bats convinced me that he is as ready as he'll ever be to take over RF. He is not and never will be Hidalgo's defensive equal, but he will be a sound hitter to all fields, and if trading Hidalgo and plugging Lane into the lineup will help Houston keep its payroll in line with revenues and open the door, perhaps, to getting hold of another solid starting pitcher, the Astros should make the trade. If you're worried about Houston's bench in 2004 as a result of a trade of Hidalgo (and we all are), keep in mind that Henri Stanley, wonderfully consistent last season at New Orleans hitting .292, could fit in quite well as a reserve OF. And two other OF prospects upon whom the Astros have banked a lot, Mike Rosamond and Charlton Jimerson, though they have struggled and have holes in their games, also showed strong signs in AA and A ball last season that they are beginning at long last to figure pro baseball out. Rosamond hit .273 at Round Rock; Jimerson .265 at Salem. Both strike out too much for their own good, but both have impressive physical gifts, particularly Jimerson's speed, and assistant GM Tim Purpura recently praised Jimerson's work ethic and approach to the game as among the best in the Astros' system. Both guys may be ready to move up the ranks of the orgnization this season, making reliance upon Lane and Stanley more possible for the Astros next season. Either of these two men would be a more intriguing Astro outfielder than Colin Porter, who also will be a candidate for a reserve spot, or Orlando Merced, who, to save money, probably won't be asked back.
Having suggested that the immediate Houston OF situation would not be as dire as one might think if Hidalgo is traded, I would nevertheless aim at getting the same kind of deal for him that the Astros got from Philadelphia for Wagner--a big league starting pitcher, if possible, and a prospect or two. Complicating matters, however, are the limited number of teams which could take on Hidalgo's contract this coming season and in 2005. It's possible that Houston could share some of Hidalgo's contract in a trade, but that rather defeats the purpose of trading him in the first place, and it would certainly limit Houston's ability to sign Pettitte or some other SP to a long-term deal. One way around this dilemma is to think ahead a little bit, as Hunsicker and company are surely doing at this moment in contemplating the probable cost of signing Pettitte. To repeat the public speculation, it is thought by the press that the Astros might be willing to offer Pettitte $40 million for four years, while the Yankees could offer $50 million over that same span. You and I both know Drayton McLane has never agreed to a long-term deal since getting burned on the contracts to Doug Drabek and Greg Swindell. For that reason, I am skeptical that a Pettitte signing will take place, and I will remain so until the deal is done. That said, McLane might very well make an exception to that policy this season. Pettitte, at 31, is younger than Randy Johnson was in 1998-1999 when Houston made a three-year offer to RJ when the big guy wanted four. Pettitte, although he's had elbow problems in the past and might have them in the future, does not appear to be the health risk that Johnson appeared to be four years ago. If Houston does go after Pettitte hard, I think it'll be for four years, and one way of financing the deal other than by trading Hidalgo (or perhaps in addition to trading him) is to decide now to forgo picking up the option on Jeff Kent's contract in 2005, something I've never been fully convinced the Astros would do anyway. Letting Kent go would leave a big hole at 2B, of course, but by 2005 it's possible that Chris Burke will be ready to take over there. If not, the Astros might still be able to make do at 2B for a season until Brooks Conrad--the other really solid 2B prospect in the system--matures.
Signing Pettitte then--or Kevin Millwood, or Bartolo Colon, for that matter--is possible, even under the Astros' budget necessities. It might be possible without trading Hidalgo, but more than likely, he would have to go somewhere to make room for the new guy. My earliest speculation was that Hidalgo might be shopped to the Yankees, who need a RF. Whether the Yankees would be willing to make a trade with a team which would then turn around and use the money it saves to sign away a starting pitcher the Yankees must have is a serious question. It is just as possible, however, that a Yankee trade for Hidalgo would have nothing to do with re-signing Pettitte, so even now, as the rumor mill starts to churn about New York's left-hander pitching close to home next season, I wouldn't dismiss the Yankees as a suitor for Hidalgo. As for what New York might give up for Hidalgo, it would almost certainly try to fob off the grossly-overpaid Jeff Weaver on the Astros, but, again, a $6.25 million salary doesn't help Houston all that much in the quest for a top-flight arm. What I'd be looking for mostly are OF prospects. Juan Rivera is the name most of us know, but Rudy Guillen in A-ball at Michigan or Bronson Sardinha at Michigan and Tampa, also in A-ball, are 19 and 20-year-old studs with better long-term potential. New York's other team, the Mets, could also use Hidalgo (I blush with the understatement), but if LHP Scott Kazmir isn't on the other end of the deal, I wouldn't do it. SS Jose Reyes is intriging, and I would think Hidalgo would be worth either or both of these prospects, but Kazmir, at least, has to be part of the package.
If the Mets and Yankees back away, the Dodgers might step up, since they've let go of Brian Jordan in recent days. My asking price would be P Odalis Perez and Chen-Feng Chen, a 25-year-old OF/1B who slugged 26 homers at AAA Las Vegas in 2003. Chen would be useful to Houston in both the OF and at 1B, given the Astros' uncertainty about 1B after Bagwell retires (will Berkman move there?) and thinness at the position in the minors. Anaheim might also be a trading partner for the Astros on Hidalgo, but I am less certain of that. The Angels have a new owner, and it's not clear that he will follow through on his plans for a big payroll. OF Nick Gorneault, an RBI man in the Anaheim system, and P Bobby Jenks, whose troubled character and enormous potential have been well documented by ESPN, would make an interesting pair in return.
Since by trading Wagner to the Phillies, a National League club, the Astros have already done the unthinkable and helped a team in their own league, I see no reason why Gerry Hunsicker shouldn't go whole hog and trade Hidalgo to the Braves. They, too, need a first-class corner OF. Whether the Braves would be interested in Hidalgo if they intend to go after Kevin Millwood also (as they are rumored to be thinking about) is a good question, but if the answer is yes, and if Atlanta could be induced to give up 22-year old RHP Adam Wainwright (10-8/3.37, 149 IP, 128 K, 37 W) from AA Greenville or 19-year-old 3B Andy Marte from Myrtle Beach in A-ball (a solid .285 hitter with a .372 OBA), I and many other Astros fans would be very happy.
In the pursuit of Pettitte, however, and in the perceived necessity to trade Hidalgo to achieve that objective, I hope the Astros don't lose sight of other possibilities. If Pettitte or Colon or Millwood doesn't land in Houston, all is not lost. Roger Clemens, though he swears he is retired, has also filed for free agency, a hint that he might be looking for a deal from somebody. If the Astros would care to look instead at a pitcher who could fill out a rotation at a reasonable price, Miguel Batista from Arizona would cost Houston no more than Clemens ($5-6 million) and give longer service to boot. Texas's John Thomson, although he's not a marquee name like Pettitte or Clemens or Colon, can also fill out a rotation for around $2 million.
The Astros have bullpen needs as well. There will probably be a choice made between Geoff Blum and Jose Vizcaino as a utility infielder. I prefer Vizcaino because he's a better switch-hitter than Blum and smoother defensively everywhere but 3B, but the Astros will almost certainly choose Blum instead. With the money saved from letting Vizcaino walk, I'd go after one of three guys: either Boston's Chad Fox, whom the Astros were interested in when he was with Milwaukee ($500,000-$1.8 mil), LHP Grahme Lloyd ($650,000-$800,000) who pitched last for the Mets, or ex-Astro Tom Martin, who filled out a spot in LA's 'pen in 2003. LaTroy Hawkins of Minnesota does interest me, but at around $3 million, he's too much to pay for a non-closer. Getting him would reinvent the wheel, so to speak, reviving the trio of late-inning relievers that Houston featured last season, and tempting Jimy Williams to all sorts of folly and bullpen abuse as the season goes along. I'd rather leave Hawkins, who reminds me uncomfortably of Flash Gordon, alone, and hope instead that management will strengthen the starting rotation and middle relief.
In contemplating all these things, I am aware as I write of a feeling that I don't usually have over the off-season. Part of me wants to say, "I wish the Astros could get Pettitte and keep Hidalgo, too," but that's not true. As I see it, the bedrock of all the budgetary concerns for Houston's baseball club is their annual TV and media revenue, which breaks down, as of MLB's figures in 2001, to about $2.94 per fan. That figure will not change appreciably until the Astros finish striking a new deal for their own Astros/Rockets network in 2005, and it might not change much even then. We'd better hope that it does change because, quite apart from the moves that have to be made this season, there will be choices to make in the future about contracts for Oswalt, Miller, Berkman (a new deal), Jason Lane, Morgan Ensberg and others that we cannot predict. New broadcast network coming or not, the Houston market is what it is, both because of geography and because of choices the Astros made about the extent of their fan base twenty years ago, long before Drayton McLane bought the club. We'd better get used to losing the Wagners, the Hidalgos, the Millers, because the franchise cannot support them all.
And that's what I want to say. I'm ok with what's happening right now. It's all right with me if Wagner and Hidalgo are traded and Brad Ausmus leaves. I want to see Jason Lane play every day, and I want to see if Taylor Buchholz can be the kind of pitcher scouts think he can be, and--though he would be expensive-- I want to see if Houston can lure a fine starting pitcher into the fold. It's all part of the game, whether it's played on the field or off. If the "game" for Houston's front office has to be that the Astros develop young stars only to have to trade them later for even younger prospects, then that's the way Houston's going to have to play the game. A new owner, however well-intentioned or well-heeled, will make little difference. The task now, and the task ten and twenty years from now, will still be to deal as shrewdly as possible, keeping a small core of essential players together and building around it. So far, the Astros have done that. The core Astros (Berkman, Oswalt, Dotel, Bagwell, Kent) are still here, and I am intrigued by what the future may bring. Unlike most winters, when I sit around and simply mark the days until Spring Training, this winter has awakened in me a curious sense of hope. Both the Astros and I are, in a way, starting over, trying as best we can to hold on to what is good, but letting go of those ideas (deep reliance on the bullpen, defense over offense at catcher, perhaps) and those players (Wagner, possibly Hidalgo and Ausmus) who, good as they were as part of the team, nevertheless haven't led the franchise to the championship we all want to see. It's altogether possible that by trading Wagner and Hidalgo, the Astros of 2004 and beyond will create possibilities for themselves as a competitive organization and as a ballclub that didn't exist before. It's too early, though, to say that with certainty. Much remains to be done, starting next week, when the annual round of "Have your guy call my guy" begins in earnest. If you miss baseball, and we all do, fear not. It returns on Monday.
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