The Astros traded closer Billy Wagner to the Philadelphia Phillies Monday for starting pitcher Brandon Duckworth (4-7/4.94) and two minor league pitching prospects, Taylor Buchholz and Ezequiel Astacio.

If one shoe falls, can another be far behind?

After Monday's trade, I am at least willing to consider the possibility that the deal might be a prelude to at least one other this off-season. It's hard for me to believe that the Astros' front office believes Duckworth represents an upgrade to the starting rotation, although, in my view, he does represent an upgrade over Ron Villone toward the back-end of that rotation. Duckworth's acquisition may scotch the rumor that Houston was interested in re-signing Villone this off-season.

Where, precisely, Duckworth will fit in the rotation isn't clear, although if I were planning that pitching five for 2004, I'd put him third, behind Oswalt and Miller and ahead of Robertson and Redding. I'd do so because, despite Duckworth's Redding-like difficulty in harnessing his stuff, he does still have potential as a bona-fide big-league starter. I like him and I think Houston can work with him. On the dark side of the deal, however, if there is one, we have to concede, I believe, that Houston has done no more on the field here than set up yet another Spring Training free-for-all among its pitchers. It has to be remembered that the rehabbing Carlos Hernandez will also be challenging for a starting pitcher's spot in 2004. Such a competition may thrill those of you who think competition is, by and large, a good thing, but all that such competitions do for me is make me nervous, because they demand that management make choices, and I'm not always overjoyed with the decisions that management makes in Spring Training. Just once I wish the Astros could get to, and get through, ST with a decent starting rotation whose health is intact. I can't remember the last time that happened. At the moment, we have Hernandez, Oswalt, and Jared Fernandez all on the mend. We've been told all three will be ready by March, but even if that's true, full-scale rehab takes time. A healthy pitcher uses Spring Training to refine his game; Houston's trio will be trying to get their games back, and each man is afflicted with a particularly sensitive injury--Oswalt's tender groin, Fernandez's back and Hernandez's shoulder. Duckworth could represent a major coup for Gerry Hunsicker, a young pitcher ready to step into a rotation that doesn't need him to be a # 1 or # 2 guy. On the other hand, based on his numbers both last year and over his career, he could simply be affordable insurance if Hernandez's comeback in 2004 fails.

The financial side of the deal benefits Houston greatly, although, again, it isn't clear yet what Drayton McLane means by the "flexibility" the deal affords. The Astros do exchange Wagner's $8 million salary for Duckworth's $325,000 from 2003. Duckworth's price tag for 2004 probably won't go much beyond $500,000, which could leave Houston some room to go after one of two free agents many fans think the Astros ought to be interested in, anyway--Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. I believe, however, that the way McLane envisions "flexibility" has more to do with having money available to sign the arbitration-eligible Astros before next season and having more money available to make a mid-season deal in 2004 if Houston needs to.

The fact that Houston didn't make a major deal for pitching help in 2003, either last off-season or at mid-season, was, of course, one of the failures that set Billy Wagner off on his end-of-the-year rip job on management. But, as I've pointed out before, although the Astros missed the boat on Woody Williams, they were interested in Sidney Ponson in July and nearly got the deal done. They have not been as inactive as Wagner claimed.

As is almost always the case when a talented veteran player gets traded, this deal represents a look toward the future and a couple of risks on the Astros' part. The future is embodied in the minor league prospects Houston received. Taylor Buchholz has excellent size, with the ability to either dominate a hitter or to simply dispose of him, as the situation demands. It looks like he'll be in AAA in 2004, which means that he could pay a major-league dividend pretty soon. The other pitcher, Ezequiel Astacio, is more problematic. He's 24, too old, really, to be still laboring in A ball, but has enough potential that the Astros are willing to take a shot with him. His stuff isn't as good as Buchholz's, and like the other pitching Astacios in the recent Astro past, his durability might be in question, but keep in mind, too, that one of the problems in swinging a deal for Ponson last summer was in the talent Houston did not wish to surrender to Baltimore. Houston might ultimately not wish to part with Buchholz, either (I wouldn't), but having these two guys deepens the farm system for possible future trades, or for free agent signings at positions other than pitcher.

The two risks the Astros take in making the trade are in gambling that Duckworth will step up and become a high-quality pitcher. In this respect, he's really no different from Tim Redding but, again, I emphasize that I do like the trade from Houston's perspective. I hope for one other pitching trade or FA acquisition this winter because I don't think, even with Duckworth, that Houston's rotation is that much stronger, but if you put Duckworth into the mix along with a starting pitcher the club might get if it trades Hidalgo--if it trades Hidalgo--then we might have something here. Part of me thinks, however, that this deal is it, and that Houston will use its freed up money in other ways and gamble that Duckworth will blossom in the less-pressurized atmosphere of the Astros' clubhouse. The other risk is that Octavio Dotel is ready to assume the closer's role now that Wagner is gone. Dotel's percentage of blown saves since 2000 is much higher than Wagner's, so there is reason for concern, but I must tell you that I am not as concerned about Dotel as a closer as I used to be. I stand by my remarks in The All-Time Astros Team that when he's on, Dotel's stuff is better than Wagner's. While I also fully acknowledge that the closer's role is much different from that of a set-up man, I believe that the last two seasons Dotel has had have prepared him for the new job. I think Dotel is ready to step into Wagner's role. He has better command of his stuff than he did when he first came to Houston and he is more quietly confident about his fitness for that task than he used to be. Although there has been some talk that the Astros might slide Brad Lidge into the closer's slot, I can't see that happening now. Perhaps in 2005 or 2006, but not now. Lidge will set up and Dotel will close.

As for Wagner, it's possible that the Astros have handed the Phillies the piece they need to stay up with the Braves and the Marlins, but Philadelphia has other problems to solve than who will be its closer. I would have preferred that Wagner be dealt to an AL club, but I knew all along that Philly was also a very possible destination for him. That he would be dealt was, to me, beyond doubt. For good or ill, Drayton McLane is fiercely protective of his vision of what the Astros should be, and Wagner's season-ending comments guaranteed that Houston would trade him, a matter that went beyond the need to drop salary in order to keep the club's payroll in line.

Part of me hates to see Wagner go. If he is not the greatest reliever the Astros have ever had, he is very nearly so. Yet, if there were ever a good moment to make such a trade involving such a man, now is that moment, and it seems to me Houston will do pretty well for itself out of the deal. Although I hope there is another shoe to fall in the days to come, the fairest, most sober thing I can say about the trade is that on its own merits alone, it's a good one for Houston. Getting a starting pitcher, two prospects, and another club to agree to take on Wagner's salary is about as much as the Astros or any other team in Houston's situation could hope for.

See you later this week.