When a baseball team's offense scores only one run, and that lone run is put up in the very first inning, that team is gambling that the pitching they'll receive on that day will be good enough for the win. Sometimes, the gamble pays off. We read about a handful of games every season--maybe ten at the most--in which a single, first-inning run holds up all the way through but, most of the time, it's not enough.

A lone first-inning run wasn't enough for Ron Villone (6-3) Sunday afternoon. Morgan Ensberg's 21st homer of the season off Jake Peavy was one of only three hits the Astros collected all day, and Villone, who pitched a tough, gritty game, just didn't have enough moxie to make the early lead last. The Padres scored three runs in a nerve-wracking, two-out rally in the seventh, aided by three straight walks from Villone, then turned Scott Linebrink, Mike Matthews, Jay Witasick, and Rod Beck loose out of the bullpen the rest of the way to secure a 3-1 victory. The loss ends a very disappointing 6-6 homestand and leaves the Astros (71-65) a full game out of first place in the NL Central behind the St. Louis Cardinals, who beat the Reds this afternoon.

Once young Peavy had given up the home run, a deep drive to LCF, to Ensberg, he settled down and gave up almost nothing else. He walked two and struck out ten in six innings, becoming the latest in a long line of right-handed pitchers who have completely shut down the Astros' attack over the past couple of seasons. The only other hits for Houston were two singles in the eighth, one by Ensberg and a blooper by Jeff Bagwell, as the club tried to rally.

With an offense behind him that could do nothing, Villone tried mightily to make that run sufficient, but the Padres reached him in the seventh. Gary Matthews, Jr. sliced a lead-off double to LF, but Villone retired the next two men. Then, the real trouble started. Ramon Vazquez walked, and pinch-hitter Brian Buchanan also walked, the latter reaching on very close balls called by home plate umpire Angel Hernandez. With both Brad Lidge and Octavio Dotel warming up in the bullpen, Jimy Williams stuck with Villone, giving him the opportunity to clean up his own mess. He almost did it, too, barely missing on 2-2 and 3-2 pitches to dangerous leadoff hitter Sean Burroughs, but walking him, as well, to force in the tying run. At several points in the sequence, it seems, Villone could have been granted the third strike that would have allowed him to escape the seventh with minimal damage, but he couldn't get the call. He was replaced after the third walk by Lidge.

Doubtless, there are those who wonder why Williams didn't go to Lidge earlier in the inning, before Villone could be allowed to give up the tying run. The reason Lidge wasn't called earlier, I believe, was revealed in his pitches to the batter he first faced after picking up for Villone, Mark Loretta. Lidge busted ahead of Loretta 0-2 on a couple of fastballs. Everybody in the house was waiting for a slider--the fans were waiting, the radio crew was waiting, both dugouts were waiting, and I was waiting. About the only guys who weren't waiting were Loretta himself and maybe Brad Ausmus. Instead of the slider, Lidge tried to get a third high fastball past Loretta, and the ex-Astro said, "Un-uh. No way." Loretta slapped the pitch into CF, plating two game-clinching runs, leaving me to wonder who should shoulder most of the blame for the pitching mistake. It was Ausmus who called the pitch, and that makes me wonder whether he knows Lidge just doesn't want to throw the elbow- stresssing slider right now. On the other hand, in principle, there's nothing wrong with a Lidge fastball; the problem with it is in its location. If it's down around the knees (as a good slider would be), then there's no cause for concern. But a fastball "up" is asking for trouble, and Loretta appeared to have known (or at least to have guessed right) that another fastball was coming. A hitter can do that (guess correctly) just by watching carefully from the bench or the on-deck circle, or by looking at scouting reports before the series. If the word is out that Lidge is relying less on his slider, then games like this one, wherein he surrenders RBI hits, or recent games in the past, wherein he's given up the long ball, will continue to happen with greater frequency, and that's bad news for the stretch run of September.

It's also bad news that the offense sustained nothing against Linebrink and Mathews in the seventh or Witasick in the eighth. Hidalgo walked and Ausmus was hit by a pitch with one out, but Vizcaino, hitting for Everett against Matthews, grounded into a 6-4 fielder's choice and Jason Lane, hitting for Lidge, lined hard and low to SS for the last out. Things were just as unlucky in the eighth. Ensberg and Bagwell dropped their one-out hits to CF, but the Astros couldn't capitalize. Jeff Kent, just back in today's lineup after the birth of his third child, missed a pitch and flied to LF. Lance Berkman, who couldn't find the ball at the plate all afternoon, struck out swinging, his third K of the day.

Ricky Stone did all right in keeping San Diego at bay in the eighth and ninth, but Rod Beck made miserably-quick work of Houston in the ninth, striking out Hidalgo swinging, getting Mitch Meluskey looking on a slightly-disputed call, and inducing Vizcaino to fly to LF.

The way matters are now, the Astros must go out on the road and play great baseball--not .500 baseball, not merely good baseball, but great baseball. They must call upon the veterans--Bagwell, Kent, Biggio, Hidalgo and Berkman--to step up and produce, no matter what the odds may be against that happening on the ten-game road trip that opens tomorrow night in Los Angeles. It may sound strange to say, but I am still looking for one good week out of this offense. With only four weeks left in the regular season, one good week of offense by the Astros could give them the space they need to take hold of the division. The same could be said, however, of the other two contenders, also. There's still hope for Houston, of course, as the struggling Cubs host the Cards Monday, but in order to take advantage of a Chicago or a St. Louis team that knocks the other one off, the Astros face the imperatives of having to hit and to win over the next eleven days and nights, regardless of who's pitching and how well he's pitching on a given night. If I may single out one key bat, it was Kent whom I thought might make a great difference for the Astros on the road this year, supplying in a vital spot power that last year's road lineup didn't have. Events haven't turned out that way, but I am a believer of sorts in the rather mystical proposition that veteran, winning players like Kent know when the important stretches of the season are coming, and I am bold enough to think that Kent, with his family now safe and secure, will be able to relax, focus on baseball, and have a good trip.

We can also be grateful, I think, that as close to middle-of-the-road as the Astros have played this year, they are much more deeply in the race now than they were a season ago, when they were pushing to make a set of late-season games with St. Louis as meaningful as possible. If there were ever a time for the Astros to "find" themselves, even to "play over their heads" a little bit, that time is now, right now, as the road trip begins. There are still ten home games left, too, but most of them will be at the end of the schedule. If those regular-season-ending home games are to mean much, Houston has to start winning--I'd even say, start streaking--away from home.