LA Prevents The Sweep
added 08/29

The press of a busy, do-not-miss-these-activities week has prevented me from doing all I would wish in covering the ballclub, particularly Thursday's 6-3 loss to the Dodgers, but the defeat still drops the Astros (70-63) only into a tie with St. Louis for the NL Central lead, so the world hasn't ended yet. That some of us (maybe most of us) are not happy with Tim Redding is not exactly news, but Gerry Hunsicker has said in recent days what Astroday was saying as long ago as June: that if Houston was going to go anywhere, its offense was going to have to carry it, so, an uneven performance by Redding or just about anybody else in the starting rotation is almost--but not quite--irrelevant by now. Only if Wade Miller or someone else were to get bombed would it be a concern. That possibility aside, it's got to be the offense that carries the load game by game.

Tonight, the offense failed, in part because of tough LA pitching, in part because of some good baseball luck for the Dodgers (i..e.. Berkman's near homer that was caught for an out.) Houston had opportunities to score that would have prevented the game from ever getting to Eric Gagne in the first place, but they messed up those opportunities. Since, however, Thursday's game allows me to bring up the subject, I will, albeit briefly. There's no easy way to bring it up in a typical column since each night is different, but the point of the contemporary game--the "game within the game" does seem to me to be don't let the game get to the closer. With a 70-63 record, one could assume that the Astros have let their fair share of games get to closers this season, and that's only one of the facets of the game wherein the offense has been a disappointment. It seems to me true--based on his stats--that the only time Eric Gagne has failed (and looked bad doing it) was in the All-Star Game, when he fed one right there to Jason Giambi. Other than that incident, Gagne and his fellow All-Star failee, Billy Wagner, have been money this season, pure, unadulterated greenbacks. You do not want to let the game get to Gagne or to Wagner, either one, because, if you do, it's over. I mention this point now because of its potential relevance to the NL playoffs. I have told the readers of Astroday Extra that Atlanta might be vulnerable this season because of its starting pitching, but the Braves won't be if they get the game to a healthy John Smoltz. If his elbow is for some reason not healthy, that's another issue, but if he is healthy, any game with the Braves will be over, period.

This dictum is of particular importance to the Astros because of the potential first-round matchup with the Braves. The recent issue of "focus" among the players, of staying focused the entire game, has special meaning for the first seven innings of that game. Past that point, however, the Astros are as vulnerable as any other team. Most of their late-inning comeback wins were accomplished in the strength-filled days of April and May; abortive comebacks like Thursday's have been much more the norm over the last two-thirds of the season.

Therefore, it is imperative that the offense understand that it has to produce, inning by inning, if this team is to survive into October. The pitching, as good as it has been, will not be able to carry the majority of the load. There have already been signs of tiredness amongst the bullpen corps--witness Brad Lidge's recent gopher balls and those given up (even more alarmingly) by Octavio Dotel, including Thursday's game-killer.

We're past the point of analyzing what could be done or what should be done to "fix" the 2003 Astros. There are too few games left for heavy analysis on any front. What time is left has to be devoted to what I called last night "the big push." Laughing as I wrote it (Gawd, I love helmet-to-helmet collisions in practice!), I was nonetheless serious about the game-by-game intensity that is needed over the month of September. Either the Astros, young and old, recognize that, or they don't. Sometimes, the other team just beats you, even if you give the game your best effort, and that's ok. But it is essential that Houston lay everything out over this final month, in every game. That sounds completely unrealistic, I know, but even so, it's a calculated statement, based upon how the Astros have played and upon the talent that Houston trots out each night, position by position. They have got to push it every night for the next month, or they'll sit home in October. There is no reason to save anything; there is no tomorrow for which to plan. There is only now, the game one is playing. If one does not win it, everything else, be it in the past or the future, is pointless.



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